A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 01/9/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 01/10/2024 e 01/16/2024, with a precipitation deficit forecast (orange), predominantly over the east and southwest of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian territory, the basins of the Abacaxis, Aripuanã, Beni, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Iriri, Juruena, Mamoré rivers, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon in the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the Napo, Tapajós, Teles Pires and Xingu basins. Rainfall forecast above (blue) climatology in the northwest of the region over the Rio Negro basin, other basins with precipitation accumulations close (white) to climatology for the period with some isolated areas of positive (blue) precipitation anomalies.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 01/10/2024 e 01/23/2024, with precipitation deficit forecast (orange), prevailing over a large part of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian territory, basins of the Abacaxis, Aripuanã, Beni, Branco, Coari, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Içá, Iriri, Ji-Paraná, Juruena, Madeira, Mamoré, Marañon, basins on the left bank of the Amazon in northeastern Amazonas, northeastern and northwestern Pará state, the Napo, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Teles Pires and Ucayali basins and the main course of the Solimões. Other basins with precipitation accumulations close (white) to the climatology for the period with some isolated areas of positive precipitation anomalies (blue) over the Japurá and Negro river basins.