A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 01/16/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 01/17/2024 e 01/23/2024, with precipitation deficit forecast (orange), prevailing over a large part of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian territory, the basins of the Abacaxis, Aripuanã, Beni, Branco, Coari, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Iriri, Ji-Paraná, Juruena, Madeira, Mamoré, Marañon, basins on the left bank of the Amazon in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the basins of the Napo, Negro, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Teles Pires, Xingu and the main course of the Solimões. Rainfall forecast above climatology (blue) in the northwest of the region over isolated areas of the Japurá basin, other basins with rainfall accumulations close (white) to climatology for the period.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 01/17/2024 e 01/30/2024, with precipitation deficit forecast (orange), predominating in almost the entire monitored area, in the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian and Peruvian territory, basins of the Abacaxis, Aripuanã, Beni, Branco, Coari, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Içá, Iriri, Japurá, Ji-Paraná, Juruá, Juruena, Jutaí, Madeira, Mamoré, Marañon, basins on the left bank of the Amazon in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the Napo, Negro, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Teles Pires, Ucayali and the main course of the Solimões. Other basins with precipitation accumulations close (white) to the climatology for the period, with some areas of positive precipitation anomalies (blue) over the upper Xingu River basin.