A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 01/23/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 01/24/2024 e 01/30/2024, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange), predominantly in the northern part of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian and Peruvian territory, the basins of the Branco, Coari, Guaporé, Içá, Japurá, Mamoré, Marañon rivers, the basins of the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the basin of the Napo, Negro and Tefé rivers and the main course of the Solimões. Rainfall forecast above (blue) climatology in the southeast of the region over the Aripuanã, Curuá Una, Iriri, Juruena, Tapajós, Teles Pires and Xingu river basins. Other river basins, with precipitation accumulations close (white) to the climatology for the period.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 01/24/2024 e 02/06/2024, with a precipitation deficit forecast (orange), predominating in the central and northern parts of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon in Brazilian territories, the basins of the Abacaxis, Branco, Coari, Içá, Japurá, Ji-Paraná rivers, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the basin of the Napo, Negro and Tefé rivers and the main course of the Solimões. Rainfall forecast above (blue) climatology in the southeast and southwest of the region over the river basins of Beni, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Iriri, Jutaí, Mamoré, Tapajós, Teles Pires and Xingu. Other river basins, with rainfall accumulations close (white) to the climatology for the period.