A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 02/20/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 02/21/2024 e 02/27/2024, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange), predominating in almost the entire monitored area, with the exception of the Beni and Guaporé river basins. Rainfall is forecast to be above climatology (blue) in isolated areas of these basins and some areas with rainfall close to climatology (white) only in the southern part of the monitored area.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 02/21/2024 e 03/05/2024, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange), predominating in almost all of the monitored area, with the exception of the Branco basins with the possibility of rainfall above the climatology in isolated areas and the Tefé river basin, the far east of the region with a forecast of a sharp rainfall deficit in the next two weeks, further aggravating the current situation of the basins located in that area.