A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 04/9/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 04/10/2024 e 04/16/2024, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange), predominating in the north of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian and Peruvian territory, the basins of the Abacaxis, Branco, Curuá Una, Içá, Japurá, Javari, Juruá, Jutaí, Marañon rivers, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará and the basins of the Napo, Negro and Tefé rivers. Rainfall forecast above climatology (blue) in the south of the region, over the Aripuanã, Beni, Guaporé, Ji-Paraná, middle and lower Madeira, Juruena, Mamoré, Teles Pires and Xingu river basins. Other areas with rainfall close (white) to the climatology for the period.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 04/10/2024 e 04/23/2024, with rainfall deficit forecast (orange), predominantly in the north of the monitored area, over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory, the basins of the Branco, Curuá Una, Japurá rivers, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, the basins of the Napo and Negro rivers and the main course of the Solimões River. Rainfall forecast above (blue) the climatology for the period in the south of the region over the hydrographic basins of the Aripuanã, Beni, Guaporé, Iriri, Ji-Paraná, Juruena, Mamoré, Purus, Teles Pires, Ucayali and Xingu rivers. Other areas with rainfall close (white) to the climatology for the period.