A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 05/21/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 05/22/2024 e 05/28/2024, with a precipitation deficit forecast (orange), over the basins of the Abacaxis, Beni, Coari, Iriri, Ji-Paraná, Juruá, Juruena, Jutaí, Madeira, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Teles Pires and the main course of the Solimões River. Rainfall above climatology is forecast in the north of the region, characterizing the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory, the watersheds of the Branco, Curuá Una, Japurá, Napo, Negro rivers and the left bank of the Amazon River in the northwest of the state of Pará. Other areas with a predominance of rainfall close (white) to the climatology for the period.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 05/22/2024 e 06/04/2024, with a precipitation deficit forecast (orange), on the main course of the Amazon River in Peruvian territory, the basins of the Aripuanã, Beni, Coari, Guaporé, Içá, Iriri, Javari, Ji-Paraná, Juruá, Juruena, Jutaí, Madeira, Mamoré, Marañon, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Teles Pires, Ucayali and Xingu rivers. Rainfall above climatological levels is expected in the west of the region, characterizing the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory, the watersheds of the Branco, Curuá Uná and Negro rivers, the left bank watersheds of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas and the northwest of the state of Pará and the main course of the Solimões River. Other areas with a predominance of rainfall close (white) to the climatology for the period.