A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 07/2/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 07/03/2024 e 07/09/2024, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange), over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory, the basins of the Beni, Branco, Curuá Una, Guaporé and Mamoré rivers and the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas and in the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará. Positive rainfall anomalies are predicted only in the Japurá River basin, with the rest of the areas experiencing rainfall close to the climatology for the period (white).
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 07/03/2024 e 07/16/2024, with a precipitation deficit forecast (orange), over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian and Peruvian territory, the basins of the Abacaxis, Beni, Branco, Coari, Curuá Una, Iriri, Javari, Juruá, Madeira rivers, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas and in the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, Negro, Purus, Tapajós, Tefé, Xingu and the main course of the Solimões River. Positive rainfall anomalies are not expected in any of the river basins, with other areas experiencing rainfall close to the climatology for the period.