A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 10/29/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 10/30/2024 e 11/05/2024, with rainfall close to climatology (white) in the central-southern strip of the monitored area, forecast rainfall deficits (orange) in the north and west of the region over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian and Peruvian territory, the Abacaxis, Branco, Içá, Javari, Jutaí and Marañon river basins, the basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas, the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, Napo, Negro and the main course of the Solimões River. Prediction of positive precipitation anomalies (blue) in the south of the region over the Guaporé, Iriri and Juruena river basins.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 10/30/2024 e 11/12/2024, with rainfall close to the climatology (white) in most of the monitored river basins, a forecast of rainfall deficit (orange) in the northwest of the region, over the main course of the Amazon River in Peruvian territory, the Içá, Japurá, Jutaí and Negro river basins. A forecast of positive rainfall anomalies (blue) in the south of the region over the basins of the Coari, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Iriri, Ji-Paraná, Juruena, Mamoré rivers, the basins of the left bank of the Amazon River in northwest Pará, the basins of the Tapajós, Teles Pires and Xingu rivers.