A multi-model sub-seasonal forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME produced on 12/16/2024 for the next 7 and 14 days.
The calibrated sub-seasonal multi-model forecast CPTEC/INPE-FUNCEME is generated through scientific cooperation between CPTEC/INPE and FUNCEME, and comes from a set of 4 global models (a Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). Brazilian model, BAM-1.2/CPTEC, and three US models, CFSv2/NCEP, GEFSv12/NCEP, and ESRL/NOAA, the latter three from the SubX project). The forecast precipitation anomalies are determined in relation to the climatological period from 1999 to 2016. The outputs for the 7 and 14-day forecast intervals are shown below, detailing the forecast behavior of the basins of interest.
Forecast for the next 7 days
The figure above shows the forecast for the 7-day interval between 12/18/2024 e 12/24/2024, with rainfall close to the climatology (white) in the central western part of the monitored area, with a forecast rainfall deficit (orange) in the east and south of the region, over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory and the basins of the Abacaxis rivers, Aripuanã, Beni, Curuá Una, Guaporé, Iriri, Ji-paraná, Juruena, Medeira, Mamoré, basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas and the northeast and northwest of the state of Pará, Tapajós, Teles Pires, Ucayali and Xingu. Forecast of positive precipitation anomalies (blue) in the northwest over the Içá, Japurá and Napo river basins.
Forecast for the next 14 days
The figure above shows the prognosis for the 14-day interval between 12/18/2024 e 12/31/2024, with rainfall close to climatology (white) in the central western strip of the monitored area, a forecast of precipitation deficit (orange) in the east of the region, over the main course of the Amazon River in Brazilian territory and the basins of the Abacaxis, Aripuanã, Branco, Curuá Una, Iriri, Ji-paraná, Madeira, basins on the left bank of the Amazon River in the northeast of the state of Amazonas and the northeast and northwest of the states of Pará, Negro, Tapajós, Ucayali and Xingu. Forecast of positive precipitation anomalies (blue) in the northwest over the Coari, Japurá, Napo and Tefé river basins.